文：NATO     翻译：Keping Qiu邱可平正太 男同

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漫威大片《黑寡妇》在北好意思上映已超一周，但曩昔的这个周末，影院端票房仅得益了2625万好意思元，比首周末跌幅67%，现在该片北好意思票房累计达1.32亿好意思元，创MCU最差次周末跌幅。对此好意思国电影院业主协会NATO将《黑寡妇》的票房暴跌懊悔于迪士尼遴荐在上映同日上线流媒体的策略。

事实上，由于该片在流媒体平台的同期上线，为影片盗版提供了便利，现在有多个网址提供了盗版并吞，有的如故高清版甚而是4K版。算作全好意思影院业主的代言东谈主，指出影院票房的极速下落，透澈是零窗口期导致，因此提倡影院排片排他性才是前进的标的。

“艾维电影”刊发此文，对于院网同步刊行但愿对国内电影阛阓有参考和鉴戒意思。

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中枢不雅点：院网同步放映收缩了矍铄的早期放映票房以过火他悉数窗口期的捏久推崇；影院的放映和同步付费点播（PVOD）以及盗版，这三者的自相残食减少了全体收入。

（洛杉矶 - 2021 年 7 月 18 日）《黑寡妇》凭着出色的影评、良好的口碑以及火爆的点映和首映今日的总收入，分手达到了1320 万好意思元和3950 万好意思元。关联词，第二天居然不测下落 41%，首周票房低于预期。紧接着第二个周末票房出现惊东谈主的坍塌。

为什么这么一部制作讲究、广受接待、备受期待的电影推崇如斯欠安呢？

尽管有东谈主宣称：这种疫情期间推出的同步刊行策略，对迪士尼来说是告捷的。关联词《黑寡妇》的票房走势碰劲解说了排他性的影院刊行意味着能在电影的每个生命周期内为悉数利益相干者带来更多的收入。

凭证漫威影片以过火他疫情时间的告捷影片，比如 《速9》和《寂寥之地 2 》的首映日与首映周末的比率，《黑寡妇》的开画应该在 9200万 -1亿好意思元之间。凭证点映收入，与同类影片比较，《黑寡妇》的开盘也可能作念到9700万 好意思元到 1.3 亿好意思元不等。

早期的分析指出流媒体线上（ Premiere Access） 的收入为 6000 万好意思元，并将其与好意思国国内影院票房的 8000 万好意思元进行比较，由此合计《黑寡妇》是告捷的，尤其是迪士尼还保留了家庭刊行收入。其实否则。简短15%的收入来自于多样平台，破费者是通过这些平台窥察Disney+。

关联词 Premiere Access 的收入不是新增多的，而是从更为传统的 PVOD 窗口中拉出来的，而PVOD也曾不再是一种选项。同步的流媒体收入骨子上摊薄了后续家庭文娱收入。Disney+秘籍了中国大陆除外92%的阛阓，同步上映后的家庭文娱方面收入至少折半，这个账算下来赢多如故亏多有待进一步不雅察。

此外，6000 万好意思元是内行总数，应该与 1.58 亿好意思元的影院放映内行票房总数进行比较。

好意思国每个家庭的平均东谈主口数为 2.37 东谈主。东谈主们不错假定面向家庭的Disney+ 的家庭用户数量会更大。到底若干？Disney+ 订阅者之间有若干东谈主在分享密码？调处失掉的影院收入以及被松手的传统 PVOD 收入，这些问题的谜底呼之欲出，在电影的悉数这个词生命周期中，同步刊行会减少迪士尼从每一位受众得到的收入。

盗版无疑进一步影响了《黑寡妇》的推崇，况兼将影响影片改日在尚未放映的海外阛阓上的推崇。

清新的数字版在 Disney+ 上发布后几分钟内即可赢得。 放浪 7 月 12 日， 《黑寡妇》是当周被盗版下载得最凶猛的电影。

（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

它也曾在互联网上多量的作歹流媒体网站上泛滥了。

这亦然悉数同步刊行影片所濒临的情况（《神奇女侠 1984》、《哥斯拉大战大战金刚》、《短长魔女库伊拉》、《真东谈主快打：撤废》）。 《速9》 和《寂寥之地 2 》莫得发生这种情况。抚心问一问，各家因同步刊行所酿成的盗版失掉了若干钱？

《黑寡妇》令东谈主失望的反常推崇，正在马上地陈诉因迪士尼发布有限的首周末流媒体数据所激励的很多问题。最环节的谜底是，同步刊行是疫情期间的居品，应该与疫情自身“鸡飞蛋打”，留给历史。

 

对于NATO

NATO （National Association of Theater Owners) 寰宇影院业主协会是世界上最大的影院放映商生意组织，代表好意思国悉数 50 个州的 35,000 多块电影银幕，以及内行 101 个国度/地区的 32,000 多块银幕。

NATO总部位于华盛顿特区，在加州洛杉矶设有第二个服务处。NATO匡助影院业影响联邦战略的制定，并与电影刊行商在共同存眷的悉数畛域互助，从头技能到立法、营销以登科一修正案问题。www.natoonline.org@NATOCinemas

英文原文：

BLACK WIDOW SHOWS THEATRICAL EXCLUSIVITY IS THE WAY FORWARD

Strong opening and long-term performance in all windows undercut by simultaneous release; cannibalization of theatrical and later PVOD, and piracy reduce overall revenue

 

(Los Angeles - 18 July 2021) Black Widow’s excellent reviews, positive word of mouth, and strong previews and opening day total ($13.2 million/$39.5 million) led to a surprising 41% second day drop, a weaker than expected opening weekend, and a stunning second weekend collapse in theatrical revenues. Why did such a well-made, well-received, highly anticipated movie underperform?

 

Despite assertions that this pandemic-era improvised release strategy was a success for Disney and the simultaneous release model, it demonstrates that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders in every cycle of the movie’s life.

 

d on comparable Marvel s, and other successful pandemic-era s like F9 and A Quiet Place 2 opening day to weekend ratios, Black Widow should have opened to anywhere from $92-$100 million. d on preview revenue, compared to the same s, Black Widow could have opened to anywhere from $97 to $130 million.

 

Early analysis pointed at the $60 million in Premiere Access revenue and compared it to the domestic theatrical of $80 million and declared it a success, especially because Disney keeps every dollar of home release. It does not. Approximately 15% of revenue goes to the various platforms through which consumers access Disney+.

 

It ignores that Premiere Access revenue is not new-found money, but was pulled forward from a more traditional PVOD window, which is no longer an option.

 

Further, the $60 million is the global total and should be compared to the $158 million theatrical total.

 

The average number of people per household in the U.S. is 2.37. One can assume the family-oriented Disney+ household is larger. How much? How much password sharing is there among Disney+ subscribers? Combined with the lost theatrical revenue and forgone traditional PVOD revenue, the answer to these questions will show that simultaneous release costs Disney money in revenue per viewer over the life of the film.

 

Piracy no doubt further affected Black Widow’s performance, and will affect its future performance in international markets where it has yet to open.

 

Pristine digital copies became available within minutes of release on Disney+. Black Widow was the most torrented movie for the week ending July 12.（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

It is also available on myriad illegal streaming sites all over the Internet.

 

This was also the case for all simultaneous releases (Wonder Woman 1984, Godzilla vs Kong, Cruella, Mortal Kombat). This did not happen for F9 or A Quiet Place 2. How much money did everyone lose to simultaneous release piracy?

 

The many questions raised by Disney’s limited release of streaming data opening weekend are being rapidly answered by Black Widow’s disappointing and anomalous performance.

 

The most important answer is that simultaneous release is a pandemic-era artifact that should be left to history with the pandemic itself.

 

ABOUT NATOThe National Association of Theatre Owners is the largest exhibition trade organization in the world, representing more than 35,000 movie screens in all 50 states, and more than 32,000 additional screens in 101 countries worldwide.

 

Headquartered in Washington, D.C., with a second office in Los Angeles, California, NATO represents its members in the heart of the nation’s capital as well as the center of the entertainment industry. From these vantage points, NATO helps exhibition influence federal policy-making and work with movie distributors on all areas of mutual concern, from new technologies to legislation, marketing, and First Amendment issues. www.natoonline.org @NATOCinemas